Two Above the Rest – The New York Times

Officially, the 2024 Republican presidential campaign has only just begun, as only two main candidates – Donald Trump and Nikki Haley – entered the race.

In fact, the campaign is in full swing. Looking at the historical evidence, Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief political analyst, argues that a typical nomination campaign is about halfway through by this point. “The idea of the campaign already being halfway through is a little mind boggling,” Nate writes, “but if you reimagine a presidential campaign as anything a candidate will do to garner the support needed to win, it catches on to earn a little more sense.”

Consider that Joe Biden won the 2020 Democratic nomination largely because of the work he did years earlier — specifically as Barack Obama’s vice president. Or that Trump probably couldn’t have won 2016 without his reality TV fame. Most modern candidates have the support of at least 20 percent of their party’s voters at this stage of the campaign, Nate notes. Rising from the darkness is rare, in part because campaign donors and staff have now begun picking their candidates.

For these reasons, there are two distinct categories of Republican nominees for 2024. The first includes only Trump and Ron DeSantis — by far the early poll leaders — and the second category includes everyone else.

When we asked our colleague Maggie Haberman to imagine a scenario where the candidate isn’t DeSantis or Trump, she told us, “It’s possible, but it’s just very hard to see.” One possibility, she added, would be , if DeSantis assumed dominant leadership and Trump then attempted to destroy him. “If it looks like DeSantis is going to be the nominee, Trump will probably do whatever it takes to take him down before that happens,” Maggie said.

Today, we unveil the possibilities in our first field guide for the 2024 Republican race.

Former President

Trump leads in most early primaries, typically with more than 40 percent of Republican support nationwide. He could win the nomination simply by retaining that support while remaining voters fragment, as happened in 2016.

But Trump’s weaknesses are real. In higher-quality polls, its support tends to be lower. Criminal investigations hang over him (as this new Times story explains). He’s lost to Biden before. And last year, his preferred candidates underperformed other Republicans by an average of about five percentage points.

Republican politics today often has little to do with policy proposals. Still, there are potential political debates between Trump and DeSantis. Trump has begun venting a populist criticism of DeSantis for his past support of proposals to cut Social Security and Medicare. DeSantis could criticize Trump for it support of dr Anthony Fauci and for passing federal spending that caused inflation.

The Governor of Florida

DeSantis has risen to national prominence for two main reasons.

First, by some standards, Florida is thriving during its governorship. Many more people are to move there than to go, the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal pointed out. At 2.5 percent, Florida’s unemployment rate is among the lowest in the country. During the pandemic, DeSantis lifted restrictions relatively early, with many experts predicting disaster. But Florida’s all-cause death rate from Covid is only slightly above the national average, and its age-adjusted mortality rate is lower. Last year, DeSantis won re-election by 19 percentage points.

Second, DeSantis enjoys confronting liberals, and not just about Covid. He has flown migrants to Massachusetts to protest President Biden’s immigration policies. “Florida is where awakened people die,” DeSantis said, summarizing the struggles he’s fought regarding medical care for transgender youth and racial issues. “The appeal of DeSantis right now is that he’s perceived as both a fighter for conservative causes and a winner,” says our colleague Michael Bender, who covers the Republican field.

How could Trump attack him? “Trumpworld sees DeSantis less through the lens of specific policies and more through how they can broadly portray him as either a crook or someone who adheres to established old-school thinking,” Maggie said. “Most of the time, they assume that Trump will repeatedly try to frame him, and they think or hope that DeSantis will eventually have to respond, which he’s mostly avoided doing so far.”

It remains unclear how well DeSantis, who is not a particularly charismatic politician, will do in the rigors of a national election campaign.

The potential field

Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, is running as a Reagan-style optimist who believes in small government and foreign policy rigor. She served in Trump’s cabinet and describes him as a friend – while offering a sunnier vision of America than he does.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, a former private equity executive, also takes a Reagan approach. He’s comfortable with Businessmen and Evangelicals, two major Republican constituencies.
“I don’t like losers,” New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said recently. “I’m not against Trump, I’m not for Trump. We just keep going.” Sununu also describes himself as a conservative who is not an extremist. Larry Hogan, the former governor of Maryland, also wants to find a place in this alley.
Mike Pence is a longtime evangelical favorite. But Trump supporters distrust him for not trying to overturn the 2020 election result, while many Trump critics would rather not vote for his former vice president.
Mike Pompeo has a sparkling resume: He graduated first in his class at West Point, was elected to Congress, and served as Trump’s Secretary of State. He has remained largely loyal to Trump. “How does he differentiate himself?” asks Michael Bender.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota appear to be considering a run, as well as a few others.

Here’s how one of these candidates could be defying the odds: Maybe Trump is as wounded as some people think, or DeSantis will fight on the national stage. Then space could open up for an alternative, and one of the second-rate candidates could shine in the early debates and campaign appearances.

In previous campaigns, past poll leaders have sometimes faded (like Rudy Giuliani in 2008) and long shots have won nominations (like Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992). Upsets happen, but they’re called upsets for a reason.

To understand the campaign Times subscribers can sign up for Nate Cohn’s newsletter.

These boots are everywhere

Every now and then a boot becomes characteristic of a moment in time. In the early 1990s there were Timberlands; in the early 2000s Uggs. For our current era, writes Max Berlinger, fashion historians might point to Blundstone’s Chelsea boots.

The boots have elastic side straps instead of laces or buckles. Their lightness and comfort are an essential part of their appeal. “I can stand in it for hours,” said Woldy Reyes, a chef in New York. “I know so many other chefs who wear them in the kitchen.”